The Twilight Before the Storm: From the Fractured 1930s to Today's Crisis Culture. Book review by Donald Harvey Marks.
The Twilight Before the Storm, by brilliant global strategist Viktor Shvets presents a very readable analysis that our world is in a dangerous transitional period marked by the decline (thank God for that) of neoliberalism. By comparing the current moment to the fractured political and economic landscape of the 1930s, Shvets offers a critical framework for understanding today's uncertainties. I highly recommend this readable and meaningful book, and have added it to my always updated list of favorite books. @Goodreads
Key points of the book
Critique of neoliberalism: Shvets argues that neoliberalism, which has dominated economic and political policy for four decades, has become a "failed ideology". The Global Financial Crisis of 2010 shattered faith in this free-market approach, leading to today's political and social instability.
Elsewhere, I define the NeoLibs as generally associated with the 20th-century resurgence of 19th-century ideas of free-market capitalism. As Shvetz points out, Neoliberals advocate (potentially ruinous) policies, including economic liberalization, privatization, deregulation, globalization, free trade, austerity and reductions in government spending in order to increase the role of the private sector in the economy and society. Think Ayn Rand and Ronald Reagan.
The "Fujiwara Effect": A central concept in this book is the merging of advanced technology and deep financialization, which Shvets dubs the "Fujiwara Effect". This powerful combination has created a world of abundance, not scarcity, by dramatically reshaping global markets, labor dynamics, and capital distribution. This effect is a primary driver of the current upheaval and disinflationary pressures.
Historical parallels to the 1930s: The book draws a powerful parallel between today's crisis and the social, economic, and political fractures of the 1930s. Like in the 1930s, that horrible time that my four grandparents managed to live through, free-market liberalism has been discredited, but no new global consensus has emerged to take its place. This ideological vacuum, combined with technology-driven social disruption (social media and A.I.) has led to a deep loss of faith in institutions.
A "world on fire" and potential conflicts: Shvets warns that without a new societal consensus, humanity could face a "world on fire," with conflicts ranging from geopolitical tensions to civil strife. He examines where these conflicts might arise and suggests policies to lower tensions and avoid the worst outcomes.
The rise of government intervention: As private markets falter and uncertainty grows, Shvets predicts an increased role for government as a "guardrail". Governments will need to play a larger part in shaping societal consensus and addressing issues like inequality. This shift challenges the hands-off approach of the neoliberal era.
Homeless orphans trying to keep warm in New York City
A new generational outlook: The Twilight Before the Storm:explores how Millennials and Gen Z view the world differently than the Baby Boomers (my generation), some of whom drove the neoliberal (Ayn Rand and Ronald Reagan) projects. Shvets suggests the younger generation's (that of our children and grandchildren) worldview, shaped by current conditions, may lead to a future closer to the more constrained, state-involved era of the 1950s and 60s than to the unfettered capitalism of the 1990s.
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